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Trading - the Desmond.

Posted by matchbettingforfree on March 21, 2016 at 3:45 PM Comments comments (0)


Named after Arch Bishop Desmond Tutu this a correct score trade which uses the same match

selection criteria as the Aristotle to trade price movements on the score lines of 2-1, 1-2 and 2-2 

Why it works

The Desmond is played by taking positions on the correct score lines of 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 and 2-2 in a

game where we expect both teams to score. We enter the market only if the match is still 0-0 at 24

minutes. We’re hoping the match will finish on one of our target score lines but by managing our

positions in-play as the goals go in we can create a green book on every correct score line.


The edge here is from the match selection, the statistical probability of over 2.5 goals and by taking

positions on correct score lines when the prices offer value.

How it’s played

Using a £25 stake we enter the market with the score at 0-0 24 minutes. With back positions as

follows:

36% Stake of £9 Backed on 1-1

26% Stake of £6.50 Backed on 2-1

26% Stake of £6.50 Backed on 1-2

12% Stake of £3 Backed on 2-2

We are now green on all of those score lines with a maximum liability of £25 on any other score. We

now sit back and wait for goals. As the goals go in the prices we backed at will fall allowing us to lay

our position to remove our liability. At 1-1 we can remove all liability by laying 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2

leaving a healthy green on 1-1 and 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2. We can then further lay 1-1 to create profit

across all scores.

Now whoever scores next we are in great position as either 2-1 or 1-2 will come in as well as 2-2. 1-1

will now be dead as with one either 2-1 or 1-2 but because we have already layed we are already in

profit. With the score at either 2-1 or 1-2 we lay off the current score line and 2-2 to balance our

book.

Where’s the downside

The downside is no goal or goals for just one side. Match selection will help to minimise this but as

an additional insurance we can take cover with a back of under 2.5 and a little on 3-0 (0-3 is very rare

but can be covered for few pennies.)

Research & Strategy

Posted by matchbettingforfree on March 13, 2016 at 5:45 PM Comments comments (0)

The first rule of football trading is  

DO YOUR RESEARCH!

 

Dont just jump in on any old market based on your own opinion or thoughts.

Set yourself a criteria to use a certain match, and stick to it.

A couple of good sites for stats are:

www.soccerstats.com

www.windrawwin.com

www.flashscores.co.uk

in flashscores, just click on the match you are interested in, then click the h2h tab.

Football stats and results | SoccerSTATS.com

SoccerSTATS.com | An independant community focused to deliver football results, statistics and live scores on football leagues worldwide.

soccerstats.com


Trading rules to follow.

Read these 8 simple trading rules. Print them out. Laminate them. Stick them in your line of site

wher you’ll be working when trading. Seriously, do it. It’ll safe you money.

1. Only enter a trade if you have completed thorough research and preparation before taking

on a risk.

2. Never enter a market unless you have a greater than 50% chance of success. If

you are not sure of the % do not enter the market. Over time just a 51%

is enough to secure profitability whilst 49% is the route to depression. A wise

man once told me ‘it’s better to be out of a market wishing you were in, than in a market

wishing you were out!’

3. Follow a proven strategy that you understand and have a clear plan of what to do if

something goes wrong before you enter the market. Decide in advance if you are scalping,

swing trading or taking a position in a market. If the market moves against you, have a set

limit of exposure and accept the loss quickly as hoping the market will change in your favour

is not an effective strategy. There is no point trying to scalp a tick and instead losing 10.

4. Keep your emotions out of your decision making.

5. Don’t panic 

6. Understand that you are trading for profit not entertainment. There is no such thing as a fun

trade or a trade for interest’s sake. The pleasure will come from the intrinsic satisfaction of a

long-term trading success.

7. Focus on the solid execution of strategies and long-term profitability

rather than second guessing your trades and gambling for short term gains.

8. Don’t re-enter a winning trade. It is very rare you’ll improve a winning trade by re-entering

the market unless it’s very early the event and there are clear that there will be other opportunities still to come.

There is however a chance you’ll turn a good position bad, position or even worse turn a

profit into a loss! Wining trades are usually best left to win on their own.



 

The aristotle strategy


 

This is one of the most consistently profitable Football trades in the Sports Trading Edge arsenal. The

Aristotle is essentially an over 2.5 goals trade with insurance positions on Under 1.5 and the correct

score market.

The edge comes from statistical research, the probability of over 2.5 goals and entering the market

when the price of over 2.5 goals is in our favour.

How it’s played

We’re looking for matches where there is a good statistical chance of both teams scoring, yet a price

on over 2.5 goals of at least @1.90 (ideally higher). Where the price of over 2.5 is lower than @1.7

there is no value for us so we must wait to get involved. Using our usual stake of £25 we split it:

58% Stake of £14.50 Backed on over 2.5 goals

14% Stake of £3.50 Backed on 1-1

28% Stake of £7 Backed on under 1.5 goals

As long as there are no goals, the price of under 1.5 goals will drop creating profit for us to offset

some of the loss of over 2.5 goals moving against us. After 23 minutes we’ll aim to green U1.5 as

statistically first goals are score most often from the 24th minute of a match.

As the goals go in we can remove our liability on over 2.5 goals hedging out for a profit after the

second goal. If the underdog scores first we can lay off half our stake on 1-1 to reduce our liability on

other scores to £1.75. If it goes 1-1 we lay off again for around £6.75 to create a scratch on 1-1 and

£5.00 on any other score line. When a match goes our way we can expect a return of between 20-

80%.

The key to success in football is matching the right trades to the right games. To enable us to

consistently do this we research key metrics ahead of each match we select. The criteria we use:

Home side: Average goals for, against, combined average, % O2.5, %U2.5, strength of

attack/defence

Away side: Average goals for, against, combined average, % O2.5, %U2.5, strength of

attack/defence

We then calculate the combined average score and the probability of over 2.5 goals. Where the

probably is greater than 60% we have a tradingEDGE and will look for prices of the right value to

recommend a trade. If we find a match that we want to trade but with a price below @1.70, we

have the option to lay under 4.5 goals to catch any early goals whilst we wait to enter the market

when O2.5 reaches @2.10.

A bore draw of 0-0 will hurt us the most so we can take optional insurance to cover half our stake

with a lay of over 0.5 goals which at an average of 1.07 will cost us just £0.88.


 

 

The Socrates strategy

 

A variation of the Aristotle which we’ve added to our portfolio to help maximise profits and reduce

the downside whilst removing the need for as much in play management.

Why it works

Using the same match selection criteria as the Aristotle and the Desmond the BTTS becomes a very

simple trade for beginners to follow. We take our positions in the market at the start of the match

and only need to make any moves if the score is 0-0, or 1-0 after 60 minutes. Because of its

simplicity it is possible to trade multiple matches at the same time.

The edge here is in match selection, the statistical probability of over 2.5 goals and the regularity of

both teams scoring. We are looking for a double win on two markets BTTS (both teams to score) and

over 2.5 goals to maximise our profits. Even in a match where side concedes 6 goals there will often

get a consolation goal to give us our double win.

How it’s played

We are looking for matches where the price of BTTS and Over 2.5 goals are @1.80 or above. Using a

£25 stake we enter the market pre-match with the following stakes:

Stake of £10 Backed on BTTS @1.80+

Stake of £10 Backed on over 2.5 goals @1.80+

Stake of £2 Backed on 0-0

Stake of £3 Backed on 1-1

We will let this trade run to its conclusion unless the score is 0-0 or 1-0 after 60 minutes. If 0-0 we

will green up 0-0 and scratch 1-1 taking a hedged red on over 2.5 goals and BTTS. If 1-0 we green up

1-1, scratch (or take a small loss on over 2.5 goals) and red BTTS. Any other score line and we have a

tradingEDGE so can let the trade run until 80 minutes where we can reassess. We can either exit the

trade or stay in with a probably win one either, 1-1, over 2.5 or BTTS and ideally both Over 2.5 goals

and BTTS.

The downside is no goal or goals or two goals to one side. Taking insurance to cover half our stake

with a lay of over 0.5 goals will protect us from a 0-0 draw. A small back of 2-0 and 3-0 at 1-0 will

minimise the loss of a 2-0 finish.

 

 

tennis trading - entry points.

Posted by matchbettingforfree on March 13, 2016 at 8:25 AM Comments comments (0)

Tennis trading.

 

This info has been around for around 10 years now, and is still regarding as giving traders a little edge.

 

First of all - I highly recommend using a ''trading bot'' for any sort

of trading.

I have used most of them during the past 14 years, and found that

Fairbot is by far the best, and easiest to use.

Can download fairbot from here........

 

www.fairbottradingbot.co.uk

 

 

I use it for all my trading without exception, and use it for most of my

regular punting too!

 

There are many strategies for tennis trading. Some successful. Some

dangerous. Some disatrous.

 

Probably the most popular way is for people to watch the game live and

simply place back and lay bets when you see a point being won. This was

ok - but on many occasions your bet or lay would not get matched, simply

because of the speed the market moves in tennis.

OK - no harm done - just cancel the bet. But no profit (or loss).

 

Because of the slight delay for television ''live'' streams, this

strategy is not great. You really need to be either at the match itself,

or using a live stream live bet365 which is probably the fastest stream

you will get online for live sports.

 

You can, when using this strategy, try and anticipate which way the next

point is going to go - but if you get this wrong, you will lose. Also

many others are trying to do this also, and the ''big boys'' will

sometimes put in large amounts of money into the market. This can give a

slightly false looking market for a few seconds. Dont jump in just

because you see a large amount of money suddenly appear. Trying to

follow the score just by watching the price will not work.

 

As with all trading - you need to do some research.

Find out which players are strong servers - strong receivers - find as

much info as you can about both players in a match.

This site is as good as any for those sort of stats............

http://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/leaders.cgi


Once you have found the stats you need for a specific match, you then

need a plan - and stick to it.

 

You need to find entry points which will minimise your losses.

 

The following is a rough guide to good entry points - and have been

regarded by many tennis traders for many years now as giving you a bit

of an edge. I have used 2 or 3 of these entry points for around 14

years, and added to them as the years go on.

 

For the following entry points, you dont want a match where the

favourite is below 1.3 or 1.35.

 

I only do these in the FIRST set. I dont trade a match after the first

set is finished.

 

 

0 - 0 ........decent time to lay the server - especially if he or she is

not a strong server. Should the server win the first point, there will

be a movement of 3, maybe 4, ticks against you. However should the

server lose the first point, the movement should be around 6 ticks in

your favour. Womens events, where breaks of serve are more frequent,

this strategy will work in your favour a high percentage of times.

 

15 - love ....... do nothing.

 

love - 15 ........do nothing

 

30 - love........ mens events - back the server. Womens events lay the

server. If the server wins this point and it

goes 40 - 0, there will be very little movement. However if it goes 30 -

15, there will be movement in your favour.

 

40 - love .......... do nothing.

 

love - 40. Lay the server. if it then goes 15 - 14, scratch out for

minimal loss.

 

15 - 15.......... Lay the server. If the receiver wins this point, you

should get around 5 ticks in your favour. If the server wins this point,

there will be a minimal movement against you. If it does go to 15 - 30,

you will have the choice whether to take the profit, or let it go for a

further point. Then if it goes 30 - 30, you can scratch your bet for

zero or minimal loss. However if it goes 15 - 40, you will get an extra

few ticks in your favour, and a handy bit of profit - good time to green up.

 

30 - 15...........mens tennis - back the server. Womens tennis - lay the

server

 

30 - 30..........lay the server

 

15 - 30..........lay the server.

 

40 - 15.........do nothing.

 

40 - 30...............Some people like to lay the server at this point.

Am not too sure, and i tend to do nothing.

 

deuce...........do nothing.

 

Do not be afraid to take a small loss if a point goes against you.

Overall, you should be in profit if you use the above entry points.

 

I recommend using 5% of your betting bank per trade.

Whatever you do - do not bet more than you are prepared to lose.

 

Trading CAN go against you - and you will not profit from every trade.

This is just a fact.

 

GOOD LUCK!

 

 

 

 

Matched betting

Posted by matchbettingforfree on March 11, 2016 at 4:35 AM Comments comments (0)

Concept

The concept of matched betting requires an account with any bookmaker that offers a free bet with favourable conditions, and an account at a betting exchange, which is required as the venue with which to place a bet for the opposite result of the bet placed with the bookmaker in order to offset a potential loss made at the bookmaker. More advanced versions involve placing the bets on multiple bookmakers (dutching) to avoid the exchange price of using an exchange. Generally, bookmakers incorporate terms by which bettors must first place a bet using their own money in order to qualify for the free bet. For this, a bet is placed on particular results occurring with the bookmaker and a second bet placed on the same result not occurring at the betting exchange. The latter is required to offset any loss in the event that the result does not occur; for instance, if a team loses. Once the free bet has been qualified, the same process is followed with the exception that a free bet is being used. No matter which result occurs, there will always be a guaranteed profit because the bet was made free of charge. Online betting outlets, betting exchanges, have become popular in recent years for they allow betters to bet without official odds-makers. In essence, the person placing the lay bet acts as a bookmaker.

 

Continued matched betting taking advantage of existing customer reload offers doesn't work quite the same way. Rather than backing and laying on the exchange to guarantee a free bet no matter what the outcome the person will back on the bookmaker, lay on the exchange and hope for the desired outcome to occur and reward a free bet. Calculators can help work out if the qualifying cost and potential reward from the free bet is enough to justify the potential risk of not getting a free bet. Similar to playing poker it's considered profitable in the long term to continue making these low risk wagers where the qualifier might be pennies compared to the potentially hundreds made if the refund event occurs for a free bet.

 

Approaches

There are several common strategies for matched betting including automatic, assisted, and manual betting.

Assisted

Assisted matched betting refers to websites or software packages which provide comparison tables of markets for individuals to bet on. These are commonly known as 'auto-matchers'. Auto-matchers are usually used by individuals who have an understanding of matched betting. Auto-matchers will usually provide the individual with a matched betting calculator to be used in conjunction with the comparison table, in which the user can select the type of bet, stake, bonus and time-frame.

 

Manual

 

Matched betting manually is where the individual finds the offers, markets and odds him/herself and also makes the relevant calculations. Matching the right odds can be time consuming and may require a high level of numeracy and betting knowledge. Where there is a potential for loss this is more akin to advantage play gambling.

Risks

Matched betting is perceived to be risk-free because the free bet aspect of the process will offset any potential losses and betting exchange commission.

Worked example

Note that the following example uses indicative figures.

 

Bookie X offers a £10 free bet. First, the individual has to make a bet of £10 with Bookie X to qualify for this.

Bookmakers often require individuals to make a bet before giving them the free bet.

Stage 1

The first stage is to qualify for the offered free bet, e.g. by making a £10 bet with Bookie X for England to win. There is a chance that England might not win, in which case you would normally lose the £10.00. This bet is referred to as the 'Back Bet'. However, in matched betting, this loss is minimized by placing a bet at the same time at a betting exchange for England not to win ( i.e. to lose or draw). This is called a 'Lay Bet'.

 

By applying the correct equations, the individual making the bets knows how much to place at the betting exchange so that no matter the outcome of the England match, the bettor will suffer a small loss (typically under 10% of the value of the free bet offer). However, by making this initial bet, they have qualified for the free bet.

 

Stage 2

The second stage is to use the free bet; for example, making a £10 back bet with Bookie X for France to win. Again a lay bet is placed for France not to win to offset any loss.

 

The mathematics of matched betting means that the profit made is identical, regardless of result. In this example, it is assumed that the overall profit from this match is £8, since any loss is offset by larger winnings achieved through laying this bet. This means that matched betting individuals will know for sure how much profit they will make before the match starts. Less the initial loss, the matched better's net profit is £7.00.

 

In the same way, the mathematics of similar types of offers by casinos can be calculated. With these there is no exchange to lay on. You take the Return to Player (RTP) of the game and multiply it by the stake requirements. You then do the same with the free bonus multiplied by the wagering requirements. If the latter is higher, then (while not risk free) it's profitable in the long term to take advantage of the casino offer as well as the sports book.

Industry reactions

Matched betting is legal and a spokesperson for William Hill has indicated that the betting industry does not have a problem with this use of free bets.

Most bookmakers have people on their staffs looking for bettors 'taking too much value', something which tends to happen with matched betting. They will place restrictions on the accounts of bettors who may be taking advantage of promotions too often, such as preventing them from placing very large bets. Bettors whose betting behavior is unacceptable to a given bookmaker risk being banned from that bookmaker's site.

Taxation

Matched betting, along with all other betting, is tax-free in the UK.

Note: If gambling (or matched betting) is your sole source of income then technically it is taxable within the UK.

Terminology and acronyms

Betting Exchange

A betting exchange is an entity which provides trading facilities for retail or bookmaker customers to buy and sell contracts. Betting exchanges provide the ability to place both back and lay bets.

Back Bet

A bet that wins if the selection on which it is placed wins. All traditional bookmakers as well as betting exchanges offer back bets.

Lay Bet

A bet that loses if the selection on which it is placed wins. Laying bets is a service provided only by betting exchanges.

Liability

The amount you lose or pay out if your lay bet loses. This is also the amount required in order to match a bet to guarantee all events are covered.

Stake Returned (SR)

A bet for which, if it wins, the bettor receives the original stake as well as his/her winnings. For example, a bet of £5 at odds of 5-to-1 returns £30 - the £25 winnings plus the original £5 stake.

Stake Not Returned (SNR)

A bet for which, if it wins, the bettor receives only his/her winnings, while the original stake is not returned. In this case, for example, a bet of £5 at odds of 5-to-1 returns only the £25 winnings, which gives a net value of £20.

Qualifying Bet (QB)

A bet placed at a bookmaker in order to receive a free bet.

Wagering Requirement (WR)

Specific instructions that must be followed in order to unlock a free bet or withdraw bonus funds from a bookmaker. These may include restrictions on markets, types of bets that may be placed and the maximum value of individual bets.

Other points to consider

Betting exchanges charge a commission on winnings made.

Free bets may have terms and conditions attached to them. For example, a bookmaker may stipulate that an initial bet is placed at odds of 2.00 or over before you can qualify for their free bet.

Bookmakers use reputation management system iesnare to track users who sign up with multiple bookmakers although some argue that the use of this software is actually a breach of the UK Data Protection Act since it shares personal information between different organisations.


 


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