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Trading - the Desmond.

Posted by matchbettingforfree on March 21, 2016 at 3:45 PM Comments comments (0)


Named after Arch Bishop Desmond Tutu this a correct score trade which uses the same match

selection criteria as the Aristotle to trade price movements on the score lines of 2-1, 1-2 and 2-2 

Why it works

The Desmond is played by taking positions on the correct score lines of 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 and 2-2 in a

game where we expect both teams to score. We enter the market only if the match is still 0-0 at 24

minutes. We’re hoping the match will finish on one of our target score lines but by managing our

positions in-play as the goals go in we can create a green book on every correct score line.


The edge here is from the match selection, the statistical probability of over 2.5 goals and by taking

positions on correct score lines when the prices offer value.

How it’s played

Using a £25 stake we enter the market with the score at 0-0 24 minutes. With back positions as

follows:

36% Stake of £9 Backed on 1-1

26% Stake of £6.50 Backed on 2-1

26% Stake of £6.50 Backed on 1-2

12% Stake of £3 Backed on 2-2

We are now green on all of those score lines with a maximum liability of £25 on any other score. We

now sit back and wait for goals. As the goals go in the prices we backed at will fall allowing us to lay

our position to remove our liability. At 1-1 we can remove all liability by laying 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2

leaving a healthy green on 1-1 and 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2. We can then further lay 1-1 to create profit

across all scores.

Now whoever scores next we are in great position as either 2-1 or 1-2 will come in as well as 2-2. 1-1

will now be dead as with one either 2-1 or 1-2 but because we have already layed we are already in

profit. With the score at either 2-1 or 1-2 we lay off the current score line and 2-2 to balance our

book.

Where’s the downside

The downside is no goal or goals for just one side. Match selection will help to minimise this but as

an additional insurance we can take cover with a back of under 2.5 and a little on 3-0 (0-3 is very rare

but can be covered for few pennies.)

Research & Strategy

Posted by matchbettingforfree on March 13, 2016 at 5:45 PM Comments comments (0)

The first rule of football trading is  

DO YOUR RESEARCH!

 

Dont just jump in on any old market based on your own opinion or thoughts.

Set yourself a criteria to use a certain match, and stick to it.

A couple of good sites for stats are:

www.soccerstats.com

www.windrawwin.com

www.flashscores.co.uk

in flashscores, just click on the match you are interested in, then click the h2h tab.

Football stats and results | SoccerSTATS.com

SoccerSTATS.com | An independant community focused to deliver football results, statistics and live scores on football leagues worldwide.

soccerstats.com


Trading rules to follow.

Read these 8 simple trading rules. Print them out. Laminate them. Stick them in your line of site

wher you’ll be working when trading. Seriously, do it. It’ll safe you money.

1. Only enter a trade if you have completed thorough research and preparation before taking

on a risk.

2. Never enter a market unless you have a greater than 50% chance of success. If

you are not sure of the % do not enter the market. Over time just a 51%

is enough to secure profitability whilst 49% is the route to depression. A wise

man once told me ‘it’s better to be out of a market wishing you were in, than in a market

wishing you were out!’

3. Follow a proven strategy that you understand and have a clear plan of what to do if

something goes wrong before you enter the market. Decide in advance if you are scalping,

swing trading or taking a position in a market. If the market moves against you, have a set

limit of exposure and accept the loss quickly as hoping the market will change in your favour

is not an effective strategy. There is no point trying to scalp a tick and instead losing 10.

4. Keep your emotions out of your decision making.

5. Don’t panic 

6. Understand that you are trading for profit not entertainment. There is no such thing as a fun

trade or a trade for interest’s sake. The pleasure will come from the intrinsic satisfaction of a

long-term trading success.

7. Focus on the solid execution of strategies and long-term profitability

rather than second guessing your trades and gambling for short term gains.

8. Don’t re-enter a winning trade. It is very rare you’ll improve a winning trade by re-entering

the market unless it’s very early the event and there are clear that there will be other opportunities still to come.

There is however a chance you’ll turn a good position bad, position or even worse turn a

profit into a loss! Wining trades are usually best left to win on their own.



 

The aristotle strategy


 

This is one of the most consistently profitable Football trades in the Sports Trading Edge arsenal. The

Aristotle is essentially an over 2.5 goals trade with insurance positions on Under 1.5 and the correct

score market.

The edge comes from statistical research, the probability of over 2.5 goals and entering the market

when the price of over 2.5 goals is in our favour.

How it’s played

We’re looking for matches where there is a good statistical chance of both teams scoring, yet a price

on over 2.5 goals of at least @1.90 (ideally higher). Where the price of over 2.5 is lower than @1.7

there is no value for us so we must wait to get involved. Using our usual stake of £25 we split it:

58% Stake of £14.50 Backed on over 2.5 goals

14% Stake of £3.50 Backed on 1-1

28% Stake of £7 Backed on under 1.5 goals

As long as there are no goals, the price of under 1.5 goals will drop creating profit for us to offset

some of the loss of over 2.5 goals moving against us. After 23 minutes we’ll aim to green U1.5 as

statistically first goals are score most often from the 24th minute of a match.

As the goals go in we can remove our liability on over 2.5 goals hedging out for a profit after the

second goal. If the underdog scores first we can lay off half our stake on 1-1 to reduce our liability on

other scores to £1.75. If it goes 1-1 we lay off again for around £6.75 to create a scratch on 1-1 and

£5.00 on any other score line. When a match goes our way we can expect a return of between 20-

80%.

The key to success in football is matching the right trades to the right games. To enable us to

consistently do this we research key metrics ahead of each match we select. The criteria we use:

Home side: Average goals for, against, combined average, % O2.5, %U2.5, strength of

attack/defence

Away side: Average goals for, against, combined average, % O2.5, %U2.5, strength of

attack/defence

We then calculate the combined average score and the probability of over 2.5 goals. Where the

probably is greater than 60% we have a tradingEDGE and will look for prices of the right value to

recommend a trade. If we find a match that we want to trade but with a price below @1.70, we

have the option to lay under 4.5 goals to catch any early goals whilst we wait to enter the market

when O2.5 reaches @2.10.

A bore draw of 0-0 will hurt us the most so we can take optional insurance to cover half our stake

with a lay of over 0.5 goals which at an average of 1.07 will cost us just £0.88.


 

 

The Socrates strategy

 

A variation of the Aristotle which we’ve added to our portfolio to help maximise profits and reduce

the downside whilst removing the need for as much in play management.

Why it works

Using the same match selection criteria as the Aristotle and the Desmond the BTTS becomes a very

simple trade for beginners to follow. We take our positions in the market at the start of the match

and only need to make any moves if the score is 0-0, or 1-0 after 60 minutes. Because of its

simplicity it is possible to trade multiple matches at the same time.

The edge here is in match selection, the statistical probability of over 2.5 goals and the regularity of

both teams scoring. We are looking for a double win on two markets BTTS (both teams to score) and

over 2.5 goals to maximise our profits. Even in a match where side concedes 6 goals there will often

get a consolation goal to give us our double win.

How it’s played

We are looking for matches where the price of BTTS and Over 2.5 goals are @1.80 or above. Using a

£25 stake we enter the market pre-match with the following stakes:

Stake of £10 Backed on BTTS @1.80+

Stake of £10 Backed on over 2.5 goals @1.80+

Stake of £2 Backed on 0-0

Stake of £3 Backed on 1-1

We will let this trade run to its conclusion unless the score is 0-0 or 1-0 after 60 minutes. If 0-0 we

will green up 0-0 and scratch 1-1 taking a hedged red on over 2.5 goals and BTTS. If 1-0 we green up

1-1, scratch (or take a small loss on over 2.5 goals) and red BTTS. Any other score line and we have a

tradingEDGE so can let the trade run until 80 minutes where we can reassess. We can either exit the

trade or stay in with a probably win one either, 1-1, over 2.5 or BTTS and ideally both Over 2.5 goals

and BTTS.

The downside is no goal or goals or two goals to one side. Taking insurance to cover half our stake

with a lay of over 0.5 goals will protect us from a 0-0 draw. A small back of 2-0 and 3-0 at 1-0 will

minimise the loss of a 2-0 finish.

 

 


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