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Trading - the Desmond.

Posted by matchbettingforfree on March 21, 2016 at 3:45 PM


Named after Arch Bishop Desmond Tutu this a correct score trade which uses the same match

selection criteria as the Aristotle to trade price movements on the score lines of 2-1, 1-2 and 2-2 

Why it works

The Desmond is played by taking positions on the correct score lines of 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 and 2-2 in a

game where we expect both teams to score. We enter the market only if the match is still 0-0 at 24

minutes. We’re hoping the match will finish on one of our target score lines but by managing our

positions in-play as the goals go in we can create a green book on every correct score line.


The edge here is from the match selection, the statistical probability of over 2.5 goals and by taking

positions on correct score lines when the prices offer value.

How it’s played

Using a £25 stake we enter the market with the score at 0-0 24 minutes. With back positions as

follows:

36% Stake of £9 Backed on 1-1

26% Stake of £6.50 Backed on 2-1

26% Stake of £6.50 Backed on 1-2

12% Stake of £3 Backed on 2-2

We are now green on all of those score lines with a maximum liability of £25 on any other score. We

now sit back and wait for goals. As the goals go in the prices we backed at will fall allowing us to lay

our position to remove our liability. At 1-1 we can remove all liability by laying 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2

leaving a healthy green on 1-1 and 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2. We can then further lay 1-1 to create profit

across all scores.

Now whoever scores next we are in great position as either 2-1 or 1-2 will come in as well as 2-2. 1-1

will now be dead as with one either 2-1 or 1-2 but because we have already layed we are already in

profit. With the score at either 2-1 or 1-2 we lay off the current score line and 2-2 to balance our

book.

Where’s the downside

The downside is no goal or goals for just one side. Match selection will help to minimise this but as

an additional insurance we can take cover with a back of under 2.5 and a little on 3-0 (0-3 is very rare

but can be covered for few pennies.)

Categories: Trading Football

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